The American Mind

Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani can both claim victory at the CPAC straw poll, but Giuliani was the true winner. Romney got 21% of first choice votes. Rudy was the consensus second choice. When the first and second choices were combined Rudy led with 34% with Romney behind at 30%.

Mitt’s victory came from a very organized campaign. Students were bussed into hand out stickers, hold signs, shout loudly, and clean up Romney flip-flops strewn throughout the exhibit hall.

Giuliani in contrast simply swept into CPAC, gave a speech, and swept out. He was the Mazda candidate going “zoom zoom.” Rudy didn’t have a organization working yet he did very well in the straw poll.

Much of that support comes from conservatives wanting to win the Islamist War. 30% of voters thought the Iraq War was the reason for the GOP electoral defeat last fall. These conservatives think a strong leader winning the war would lead to further success at the ballot box.

Conventional wisdom says the conservative movement is one-half fiscal conservatives and one-half social conservatives. Passionate conservatives that attend CPAC don’t fit into that box. CPAC voters were 50% fiscal, only 30% social, and 19% homeland security/national defense. That may also explain some of Rudy’s strong showing. Sen. Sam Brownback won the social conservatives with Romney and Giuliani splitting the fiscal conservatives.

McCain dissing CPAC obviously hurt him. Only 12% of voters made him their first choice. Newt Gingrich beat him with 14%, and he isn’t even running–yet.

Without even trying Rudy Giuliani wowed a group on paper he has no business wowing. We see Romney has a good, effective organization, but Giuliani is in a good place. With a strong organization he could run away with the nomination.

“Rudy vs. Romney: That’s the End Result of CPAC”

“Romney Loses The Straw Poll — No, Really”