Sarkozy Socialists
From reading the coverage of Nicolas Sarkozy’s French presidential victory it gives me a feeling of deja vu. Didn’t a similar phenomenon happen in the U.S. about 28 years ago?
Sarkozy, a pro-American conservative and an immigrant’s son, defeated Socialist Segolene Royal by 53.06 percent to 46.94 percent with an 85 percent voter turnout, according to final results released early Monday.
The win gave Sarkozy a strong mandate for his vision of France’s future: He wants to free up labor markets, calls France’s 35-hour work week “absurd” and plans tougher measures on crime and immigration.
…
Exit polls offered some surprises. Some 49 percent of blue-collar workers – traditionally leftist voters – chose Sarkozy, according to an Ipsos/Dell poll. Some 32 percent of people who usually vote for the Greens and 14 percent who normally support the far-left also went with Sarkozy. The poll surveyed 3,609 voters and had a margin of error of about 2 percent.
Are these Sarkozy Socialists France’s Reagan Democrats? They are concerned with much of the same issues as Reagan’s swing voters: ending economic stagnation, lower taxes, fighting crime. The Economist summarizes it as “that France has to change, that work needs to be valued, effort rewarded, and authority strengthened.” There’s even a target to blame. Reagan went after “welfare queens” while Sarkozy aimed at immigrants. The socialists’ loss caused one party leader to declare, “We have to change our formatting, our ways of thinking, on the left.”
Maybe the voters simply wanted change for change’s sake. We’ll see in next month’s parliamentary elections how serious French voters are about instituting Sarkozy’s reforms. Not giving the president-elect a majority will mean few reforms will happen.
On French relations with the U.S. don’t expect France becoming a close partner. The French public still doesn’t care much for President Bush and his so-called “cowboy” foreign policy. Sarkozy won’t be making an abrupt change:
Sarkozy also made it clear that France would remain an independent voice.
The United States, he declared, can “count on our friendship,” but he added that “friendship means accepting that friends can have different opinions.”
What would be refreshing is if Sarkozy didn’t stymie U.S. efforts to do anything at the U.N. the way Jaques Chirac did. Hopefully Sarkozy can boost France’s efforts in Afghanistan, a war they didn’t oppose.
This election just may make me rethink my French wine boycott.
More analysis at OTB, Matthew Yglesias, and Daniel Drezner.
“France’s Sarkozy Plans Reform Package” [via Fauta's Blog]
