The American Mind

A Pentagon analysis finds the amount of Iraqi violence hasn’t changed because of the surge only its location:

Violence fell in Baghdad and Anbar province, where the bulk of the 28,700 more U.S. troops are located, but escalated elsewhere as insurgents and militias regroup in eastern and northern Iraq. In Anbar, attacks dropped by about a third, compared with the previous three months, as Sunni tribes have organized against entrenched fighters from al-Qaeda in Iraq, the report said.

Overall, however, violence “has increased in most provinces, particularly in the outlying areas of Baghdad province and Diyala and Ninewa provinces,” the report said. In Diyala’s restive capital of Baqubah, U.S. and Iraq forces “have been unable to diminish rising sectarian violence contributing to the volatile security situation,” it said.

We have an Iraq government that is locked in stone, unable or (more likely) unwilling to implement needed laws to unite Shia, Sunni, and Kurd. A good portion of Iraqis are fed up believing fragmentation would be better:

Iraq’s government, for its part, has proven “uneven” in delivering on its commitments under the strategy, the report said, stating that public pledges by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki have in many cases produced no concrete results.

Iraqi leaders have made “little progress” on the overarching political goals that the stepped-up security operations are intended to help advance, the report said, calling reconciliation between Shiite, Kurdish and Sunni factions “a serious unfulfilled objective.” Indeed, “some analysts see a growing fragmentation of Iraq,” it said, noting that 36 percent of Iraqis believe “the Iraqi people would be better off if the country were divided into three or more separate countries.”

The bombing of the al-Askari mosque only heightens sectarian tensions. Its bombing last year set off violence that stopped coalition progress in its tracks. The destruction of a shrine is the worst thing that could happen during this U.S. troop build up.

But not everything is hopeless. U.S. forces have seen success. In Anbar they’ve worked with local tribesmen to form a united front against al Qaeda in Iraq. Where additional troops have come in violence has decreased. Ninety days in offers some hope that local Iraqis want to stop the violence and bring order to their country. We’re all stuck with the ineffective Maliki government. The surge was supposed to bring a dose of security to Baghdad and give the government breathing room to make deals with the three ethnic groups.

James Joyner writes:

The “surge” was always part of the puzzle; it wasn’t supposed to solve everything by itself. War remains, as it has always been, a means of achieving people to make political concessions that they would not otherwise make voluntarily. Classic counterinsurgency doctrine requires securing large population centers, killing insurgents, and applying political pressure. All those things, and more, are happening.

We have nothing. No progress on sharing oil revenues. No progress toward local elections. The clock is ticking. If September comes around with more mosques bombed, more car bombs, and further increases in U.S. casualties Congressional Republicans will throw their hands up in the air in defeat.

With the added security in Baghdad maybe it’s time to toss the Iraqi parliment and government out of the Green Zone. Being outside in the midst of average Iraqis might get them to realize the importance of making political progress.

“No Drop in Iraq Violence Seen Since Troop Buildup” [via memeorandum]

“Iraq: What’s Left?”