The American Mind

Word has leaked that Sen. John McCain’s campaign didn’t bring in enough donations. As a result the ship loaded with consultants and crew need to do some bailing to prevent her from capsizing:

John McCain’s campaign, trailing top Republican rivals in money and polls, is undergoing a significant
reorganization with staff cuts in every department, officials with knowledge of the shake-up said Monday.

Some 50 staffers or more are being let go, and senior aides will be subject to pay cuts as the Arizona senator’s campaign bows to
the reality of six months of subpar fundraising, these officials said.

They spoke on the condition of anonymity because the plans have not been made public. An afternoon conference call was scheduled to announce the results of second-quarter fundraising.

I bet he’s really glad Rudy Giuliani let him drop out of the Iowa straw poll next month. How long could he have lasted after spending a few million on a loss?

McCain needs to go lean and mean. It’s likely he won’t have the resources needed to run races in all the states on “Mega Tuesday,” 02.05.08. He needs to take the Sen. John Kerry approach. Win Iowa (very tough with Romney’s organization), take second in New Hampshire (Romney should win his neighboring state), steal South Carolina away from either Giuliani or Southerner Fred Thompson, then hope the contributions roll in so momentum pushes you to big wins 02.05.

What has killed McCain is immigration. He’s completely alienated the conservative base while not getting any credit for standing up for what he believes in. This is a case where authenticity isn’t a positive. On immigration conservative voters prefer policy over personality.

McCain needs an issue badly. Conservatives don’t like him on campaign finance law, question him on tax cuts, and now there’s this immigration stone hanging around his neck. The only areas where McCain agrees with the base are the Iraq War and wasteful spending. But all the other Republican candidates (except for Ron Paul) are in line on the war and spending. McCain has his biography, but we heard that story seven years ago. It’s not fresh, and it doesn’t make up for his negatives.

Does McCain survive 2007? I think so. He might have a spurt later this year with other candidates, including Fred Thompson, making mistakes. I see him lasting until South Carolina when he runs out of money and has to call it quits.

“McCain Camp to Undergo Significant Shakeup”

UPDATE: The AP reports [via memeorandum] McCain brought in $11.2 million with only $2 million on hand.