Florida Winners and Losers

by Sean Hackbarth

The AP and Fox News have called Florida for Sen. John McCain. Here are my winners and losers:

Winners:

  • Obviously McCain who is now the GOP frontrunner.
  • Republican moderates and liberals (if they still exist). Conservatives voted for Romney, yet McCain still won.
  • Misleading attacks under the guise of “straight talk.” How much did McCain’s attack on Romney’s timetables? Probably not enough to cover the spread. But the Arizona Senator didn’t receive any negative feedback. Expect him to try this tactic again.

Losers:

  • Mitt Romney. In an almost one-on-one battle with McCain he lost.
  • Conservatives. Romney won the conservative vote, but it didn’t stop McCain. GOP moderates and liberals feel empowered. They’ll lower the volume on tax cuts and real reductions in government spending. Conservatives on Capitol Hill will feel pretty lonely. Now, there’s a report Giuliani will endorse McCain. It looks like the conservatives will have to retake the GOP.

UPDATE: Mark Steyn offers his winners and losers:

Tonight was a big win for illegal-immigration amnesty, remorseless socialization of health care, and big-government solutions to global warming.

If McCain wins in November, he’ll be eager to show he can “work” with a Democratic Congress. If Hill wins, she’ll want to make a mark, fast. And, if it’s Barack, ditto with bells on. A bipartisan consensus committed to change you can believe in.

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10 Responses to “Florida Winners and Losers”

1

What about the reports of independents being allowed to vote (for president) in a closed primary state?

2

I’m feeling pretty sick to my stomach after tonight. I think your analysis is spot on BTW. Time for the conservatives to take back the party.

3

So, Huckabee keeps playing spoiler and McCain keeps up the momentum in the southern states?

Even though I am a conservative, I can not see how anyone could say that McCain was more inspiring when contrasting his speech tonight with that of Romney’s. The contrast was striking. McCain is just not a good speaker. McCain is deluding himself to think that he can beat the Democrats.

4

Tim, I think McCain could beat either Clinton or Obama. That should really scare conservatives. So far he sees no evidence that he needs them.

5

With Mitt and McCain beating each other up, this will last a while. Feb 5 may not decide it.
Mitt has the mney to stay in as long as he wants, and McCain is getting support from the drive bys. Huck is stealing votes from both, but moreso from Mitt. If Mitt is going to win, he needs to reach out to the popular conservatives. Time for him to call in Thompson, Santorum, Allen, and the rest. As for McCain, who is his VP? Graham has been his long time friend and supporter, Rudy may want in as VP or AG, then there is Huck. This will be fun to watch.

6

I know you’re trying to stay in the political game, but I’m openly wondering some more cold, hard questions:

- Is there such a thing as a Republican conservative east of the Rockies or west of the Sierras anymore? Fred Thompson never got enough traction with the voters with a broad-based conservative message, and Mitt Romney had to use a mix of home-stateism and populism to eke out a win in Michigan. Plus, you know what happened back here in Wisconsin with TABOR/TPA.

- Are there enough conservatives left to either retake the GOP or form a viable third party? The numbers speak for themselves. There are not enough conservatives left among those that do vote in primaries or caucuses, which prevents a takeover of the GOP. With a declining voting populace, it’s hard to see how those not participating in the current two parties can realistically get a third party off the ground.

7

Steve, conservatives can win. They need to rethink what conservatism is–and I don’t mean watering it down with Leftist compromises.

There is an example of a conservative doing well in an area not know for it: Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker. He’s won re-election and may win again while governing as a conservative.

It comes down to a basic question: What do conservatives want to conserve? The answers will be different than the ones William F. Buckley, Barry Goldwater, and Ronald Reagan arrived at. After finding those answers it becomes a case of developing strategies to build movements and persuade others. Conservatives have done it before and are quite capable of doing it again.

8

Milwaukee County is a unique case (I know, I’m here). If there hadn’t been the pension scandal, and likely if Walker’s initial election would not have been a recall election, there would be no County Executive Walker. Rather, whenever F. Thomas Ament would have decided to cash out, we would have had Lee “Thug” Holloway as County Exec.

I’m at a loss to come up with what portion of the conservative coalition that Reagan brought forth will survive. It’s definitely not “limited government”; that never got more than 25% of the vote in any primary or caucus, and that was in the first state. It’s not social; both of those candidates got nuked (3 if one includes Romney and his late, ineffectual conversion to most of it). It’s not judicial; Mr. Gang of 14 is the last man standing. Last year, we thought it would be illegal immigration; instead, we’re getting Mr. Amnesty himself. It could be opposition to earmarks; however, the presumptive standard-bearer would rather have high taxes than attempt to starve the beast if he can’t kill earmarks outright.

Given both parties are no longer predisposed to fiscal restraint, and given we are either at or beyond the point of the majority using the taxing authority of government to take from the minority (I’ll argue we’re well beyond that), is either opposition to earmarks or the larger issue of fiscal restraint enough? I am not hopeful.

9

Another loser is the Michigan auto industry, since one of Romney’s promises is to resurrect carmaker jobs via a cooperative labor-government effort, funded one way or another. Conservatives, I’m sure, will be happy to support this proposal for limited government.

10

[…] McCain cheap shots. McCain did it again over a Romney comment about Bob Dole’s letter to Rush Limbaugh. The Arizona Senator unfairly turned it into Mitt attacking Dole’s military service. Like his lies about Romney’s “timetables” it was Clintonesque and uncalled for. I was correct in predicting he’d try this tactic again. He didn’t need to do it and still would have had a great Super Tuesday. All it did was show a defect in McCain’s character and tick off people like me. […]

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