The American Mind

Here are my Super Tuesday winners and losers:

Winners:

• Obviously Sen. John McCain. He’s more than the Republican front runner. He’s going to be the nominee. It’s safe to say that a plurality of Republicans can accept him leading their party into battle. That’s not just moderates but even some conservatives. But McCain has a huge amount of work to do to mend fences with conservatives who see him in an unflattering light.
• McCain cheap shots. McCain did it again over a Romney comment about Bob Dole’s letter to Rush Limbaugh. The Arizona Senator unfairly turned it into Mitt attacking Dole’s military service. Like his lies about Romney’s “timetables” it was Clintonesque and uncalled for. I was correct in predicting he’d try this tactic again. He didn’t need to do it and still would have had a great Super Tuesday. All it did was show a defect in McCain’s character and tick off people like me.
• Mike Huckabee. He didn’t die after Florida. He won Georgia, Alabama, and Tennessee (let’s ignore the exceptions of West Virginia and Arkansas). He almost won Missouri. Huckabee is a regional candidate who did what he had to do in his region.
• Perceived authenticity. McCain and Huckabee have it; Romney doesn’t.

Losers:

• Mitt Romney. He didn’t win Missouri, he didn’t win Georgia, he didn’t win California. Romney hasn’t won a primary in a state he didn’t consider a present or past home. It’s evident he doesn’t have a foothold among Southern conservatives. Even if he would end up winning the GOP nomination he would have a hard time winning in the South, an area Republicans have to win to have a chance at keeping the White House. I doubt that a month of talk radio hosts praising Romney would have helped Mitt. Not enough voters have accepted Romney’s conservative conversion. Part of that comes from him transforming so soon before running for President, and my theory that he lacks the immersion in conservatism needed to adequately defend it.
• Talk radio. Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Laura Ingraham lost, but to a lesser extent than you would think. It’s only been in the last week that they’ve pushed for Romney. Even people with big audiences can’t alter front runner momentum in such a short timespan. There was concern about McCain after New Hampshire, but the yappers didn’t rally around a candidate. Maybe if they backed Romney McCain wouldn’t have won in South Carolina which led to his Florida win which led to his Super Tuesday wins. Also note, one of the few Missouri counties Romney won was Cape Girardeau, Limbaugh’s home turf.
• Martin Frost. For staying up at 3 am to be a talking head on Fox News.

Note that unlike post-Florida I didn’t put conservatives on that list. After reading this Gerald Sieb article more fuzzy stuff like character and “change” seem to mean more to voters than ideology. I also realize McCain as the nominee doesn’t necessarily come from solely moderates. Plenty of conservatives accepted him as their candidate back in Florida.

UPDATE: Josh Trevino adds his Super Tuesday thoughts. He too knows Romney is done.