The American Mind

JR Ross informs us how Wisconsin delegates will be allocated in the Republican contest today:

Twenty-four of the GOP delegates will be awarded according to the vote totals in each of Wisconsin’s eight congressional districts. The winner of the district vote will get all three of the delegates for the September convention.

Thirteen are at-large delegates and will be awarded to whoever wins the popular vote in the state.

The remaining three are GOP National Committeewoman Mary Buestrin, National Committeeman Steve King and state Chair Reince Priebus. They are allowed to back whomever they choose, thought all three have endorsed John McCain.

Can Mike Huckabee win a Congressional district, and if so where?

Huckabee’s base are Evangelical Protestants. Based on ARDA data both Wisconsin and Iowa have similar distributions of Evangelical Protestants. Iowa has concentrations in the northwest, and Wisconsin has pockets going north-to-south in the east-central part of the state.

Huckabee’s Wisconsin problem is twofold:

1. Sen. John McCain has practically sewn up the nomination. A vote for Huckabee can be considered a “wasted” vote.
2. Wisconsin’s contest is a primary instead of a caucus where a small turnout of energized supporters can yield a significant victory.

Based on a rough look at the above map compared with the Congressional districts Huckabee’s best bets are in the Sixth and the Eighth.

The problem with the Sixth represented by Rep. Tom Petri is it’s dominated more by Catholics and Lutherans. I could see some voters who have pro-life being their number one issue voting for Huckabee, but McCain is solid on that issue. More importantly it’s a mainstream Republican district, not too conservative but not too moderate. Any one who buys into Huckabee’s populist economics would go all-out and choose between Sens. Obama and Clinton.

The Eighth district is the battleground of the state. It went for President Bush in 2004 but elected Democrat Rep. Steve Kagen in 2006. Two counties, Waupaca and Shawano have relatively high concentrations of Evangelical Protestants, but there’s not a large population there. Like in the Sixth Huckabee would need to get pro-life Catholics and Lutherans to vote for him.

Huckabee’s bigger problem is he has no realistic chance of winning the Republican nomination. He’s having fun campaigning and says he still wants to compete to give his “supporters an opportunity to have their voice heard.” He will need people like this woman from Spencer, WI:

Caryann Harwood, 32, a stay-at-home-mom with three children, said she voted for Huckabee. Harwood said she was persuaded by Huckabee’s “character, principles” and pro-life stance.

Harwood said she wanted to send a message by voting for Huckabee but said in November she’ll vote for McCain, the likely Republican nominee.

Being part of a Quixotic effort won’t drive many Republicans to the polls to vote for Huckabee. Most will pull the lever for McCain while a few will take advantage of Wisconsin’s open primary and vote for Clinton, the perceived weaker Democratic candidate.

Look for McCain to claim all 40 delegates.

Jim Geraghty gets some insight from his “Wisconsin Politics Guy.”

UPDATE: Steveegg offers numerical predictions. He puts himself out on a limb while I offer maps. In the end we both agree. Huckabee will get shut out.