Wisconsin Exit Polls
Jim Geraghty reports:
I’m hearing that after two waves of data, Wisconsin looks like a blowout in favor of Obama, in the neighborhood of 60 percent to 40 percent.
AJStrata might have spoke too soon about Obama peaking too early.
If the exit polls were centered around Madison and Milwaukee areas with high student concentrations that could skew things. Clinton should do okay in blue collar areas of Northeast and Northwest Wisconsin.
[via Hot Air]
UPDATE: We have mixed messages. Marc Ambinder draws out some pro-Clinton numbers from a CBS News story:
Info from our trusty pals at CBS News: this electorate is very white; only four in ten have a “college degree.” They’re “less affluent” than Dems in other states. The percentage of late deciders is declining: only 27% made up their minds within the last seven days.
– Issue number one is, of course, the economy, followed by health care… adding the economy and health care brings you to nearly 70% of the electorate.
– Change trumps experience, 52 to 24.
– Very few first time voters — only 17%.
– 27% of the electorate were independent
– Clinton was seen as the most unfair attacker;
– Obama (55%) was seen as the candidate most like to improve relations with the res tof the world.
– Clinton and Obama are seen as equally qualified to be commander in chief (50% and 48%), while Obama draws 60% or more on the questions of who best can unite the country and beat the Republicans.
In the Potomac Primaries Obama made inroads with less educated whites. If Wisconsin is a blowout for him then that becomes a trend.
If the trend doesn’t hold then not having a lot of first time voters as well as only 40% with a college degree bodes well for Clinton even if “change trumps experience.”
UPDATE: Sister Toldja is following all the primary contests tonight.
UPDATE II: The Politico’s Mike Allen reports Democratic insiders think it will be a good night for Obama:
The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters — women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes — while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.
If true then Obama’s inroads seen in the Potomac Primaries are a trend that should really stress Team Clinton.
