Iraq War Key to McCain’s Chances
The most obvious news today was Sen. McCain saying how important the Iraq War is for his Presidential chances:
John McCain said Monday that to win the White House he must convince a war-weary country that U.S. policy in Iraq is succeeding. If he can’t, “then I lose. I lose,” the Republican said.
He quickly backed off that remark.
“Let me not put it that stark,” the likely GOP nominee told reporters on his campaign bus. “Let me just put it this way: Americans will judge my candidacy first and foremost on how they believe I can lead the county both from our economy and for national security. Obviously, Iraq will play a role in their judgment of my ability to handle national security.”
“If I may, I’d like to retract ‘I’ll lose.’ But I don’t think there’s any doubt that how they judge Iraq will have a direct relation to their judgment of me, my support of the surge,” McCain added. “Clearly, I am tied to it to a large degree.”
He was right the first time.
I assume Sen. Obama will be the Democratic nominee. He’s got the money and momentum and can walk on water (just kidding). An Obama-McCain contest will have as it boldest contrast each man’s stance on the Iraq War. Obama has always been opposed and wants the troops pulled out as soon as possible while McCain critically backed it and pushed for the Petraeus surge. Democrats oppose the war, while Republicans support it. The all-important independents also oppose the war, but they could be swayed. If Iraq improves and there are signs that the war will soon end that issue comes off the table. If Iraq again falls into violent chaos McCain who staked his political career on the surge last year will lose.
“McCain Says He Could Lose Over War Issue”
[photo via U.S. Army]
McCain’s big problem is we have no idea if the surge has worked and won’t until we pull troops back to pre-surge levels. When we pull back to pre-surge levels, if violence does not return, then the surge will have worked.
The war to overthrow Saddam has been over for years. The Iraqi civil war has been going on since 1917. Saddam suppressed the Iraqi civil war with force. We’re doing the same (albeit much more humanely).