The American Mind

The point of the surge was to create a more secure environment in order for the Iraqi government to plant firm roots so it could stand on its own once U.S. troops left. In Basra and Sadr City the Maliki government has engaged insurgent Shia factions. It’s been messy to say the least and the outcome isn’t sure.

At some point the Iraqi government had to flex its muscle and show Iraqis it wouldn’t need American training wheels forever. But like a kid learning to ride a bike no training wheels can mean an accident could happen.

U.S. troops have gone in to help the Iraqi army in Sadr City. While disappointing it makes sense since much of the surge has focused on securing Baghdad. I think the important battle is in Basra where Prime Minister Maliki himself is leading his forces. For months British troops hunkered down at the airport while Shia factions took over the city. Iraqi government forces have come in to squelch the insurgents (partly in preparation for future elections).

An Iraqi army defeat would be a tremendous disappointment to President Bush, pro-war advocates, and the U.S. trainers who have worked so hard to help build a competent army. It would also mean the added troops from Gen. Patraeus’ surge would have to stay in Iraq longer putting more strain on the military.

For Maliki defeat would be even worse. Bruce McQuain calls this “a fight to the death, politically speaking.” One man will survive politically after this: Sadr or Makili.

With a Makili win I can see a path to a stable, democratic Iraq. With a Sadr win I see Iran’s dark shadow falling further upon Iraq.

Jules Crittenden and James Joyner add their thoughts.

“U.S. Armor Forces Join Offensive In Baghdad Against Sadr Militia”