Don’t Underestimate the Paul People
Someone forgot to tell Rep. Ron Paul’s supporters the race for the Republican nomination is over, and their guy lost.
This weekend I talked to one of Paul’s Virginia activists. They’re looking past this election and trying to emulate the Goldwater/Reagan path taken by conservatives in the 60s and 70s. Of course that would mean eventually they’d have to find a candidate that could win not only the nomination but the Presidency. Paul won’t be able to do either. They haven’t even gotten to the Goldwater stage. So in the short term they want Paul to have a prime time speaking slot at the Republican National Convention. That will be a problem since Paul won only 26 delegates. Ed Morrissey notes,
Even if he wangled a few dozen more through manipulations in caucus states like Nevada, at best he’ll come up with 100 delegates in a 2,200-delegate convention. That’s not a revolution, it’s a lunatic fringe.
That isn’t stopping them from organizing at the state and local level. Many including myself underestimated Paul supporters. We thought he was the funny-looking crank who all the other candidates could pick on during debates. That didn’t stop his supporters from raising $34.5 million for him. Now, that was money wasted, but did show there are plenty of people very displeased with the Republican Party. Some of them are now actively trying to change things from the bottom up. Such persistence feels much like what conservatives did in the 60s and 70s. At the minimum it’s forced McCain’s allies to not take local and state GOP conventions for granted. Unfortunately those efforts distract from doing the groundwork for November. Paul people are a little more than a thorn in McCain’s side.
Much of the Paul vote was/are anti-war people along with those who vote for him to protest the big-spending/big government ways of the Republicans. Add a dollop of racist fiends and you have an eclectic mix to say the least. Mainstream conservative Republicans won’t be able to get through to the gold standard fans or the anti-warriors. They’ll vote for no one but Paul. But they have a chance with the smaller government voters. The rest of the party should reach out to them. If the GOP could convince them the party really wants to shrink government it could get a much-needed injection of grassroots energy. Unfortunately I don’t see the McCain campaign caring in the least about that. They’re on a quest for independents no matter how much they love more intrusive government.
While not a blazing piece of evidence Paul people still battling is a sign McCain still hasn’t satisfied portions of the conservative base. An better piece of evidence is Rush Limbaugh saying his next mission will be to get Republicans to “cross the aisle” and vote for McCain in November. As indicated by a global warming speech in Oregon (along with an ad) McCain is betting he can get enough independent and swing voters to replace what he’ll lose from conservatives who won’t bother showing up at the polls.
“Ron Paul’s Forces Quietly Plot GOP Convention Revolt Against McCain” [via memeorandum]
[picture via Jayel Aheram]
If Paul supporters are part of the conservative base, then conservatives have a bigger problem than McCain does in my opinion.