2008 Isn’t 2004
I think political analysts are using their rear-view mirrors to look at the 2008 Presidential race. In a post on Florida Governor Charlie Crist as a possible VP pick David Brody writes,
Let’s face it. The general election is going to be won (just like every general election) by winning the Independent vote.
That was certainly the case in 2000 and 2004 with Democratic and Republican bases just about equal. 2008 is different because Sen. John McCain isn’t a favorite of many conservatives. Once he cinched up the Republican nomination it seemed like he would actually reach out to conservatives. That hasn’t happened and has alienated some of them.
From McCain’s online fundraising I’ve seen no indication he’s made up a lack of intensity among conservatives by replacing them with independents and Reagan Democrats. As important as campaign funds are voluteers Independents by their very nature rarely volunteer for campaigns. Where will McCain get the people he needs for a GOTV effort needed to compete with Sen. Obama’s well-organized machine?
McCain’s VP choice will signal to wary conservatives that he is one of them even if he occasionally goes off in odd directions. If McCain is to win in November he will need conservatives.
Brody ends his post:
The danger of course is that many Evangelicals will not vote in November. Decisions, decisions. This is a critical pick for McCain.













Here’s an important piece of advice: If it looks like it’s going to be McCain/Palin anyway (and that should be a “no brainer” for Team McCain), McCain should announce NOW or VERY SOON, rather than later towards the convention. There’s currently a growing chorus for Obama/Hillary (as VP) ticket (in fact the Dems are likely aware of the Palin phenomenon). If the GOP waits while movement for Hillary as VP grows — even worse until after it is solidified that Hillary will/could be VP pick — selecting Palin will be portrayed by Dems/liberal media more as a reaction by GOP selecting its own female (overshawdoing Palin’s own remarkable assets), rather than McCain taking the lead on this. Selecting Palin now or early (contrary to the punditocracy) will mean McCain will be seen as driving the course of this campaign overwhelmingly, and the DEMS will be seen as merely reacting. And, there’s absoultely no down-side to this because even if Hillary is a no-go as VP for Obama, the GOP gains by acting early. McCain the maverick. Palin the maverick. Do it now!
There’s no reason, and actually substantial negative, in McCain waiting to see what the Dems do first insofar as his picking Palin as VP, because, no matter who Obama picks, Palin is by far (and I mean far) the best pick for McCain and the GOP, especially in this time of GOP woes. The GOP can be seen as the party of real ‘change’ (albeit I hate that mantra, change, change, bla bla), while not really having to change from GOP core conservative values, which Palin more than represents.
In light of the current oil/energy situation, as well as the disaffected female Hillary voters situation, and growing focus on McCain’s age and health, Palin is more than perfect — now.
(Perhaps Team McCain is already on to this.)