Winning in Iraq
Al Qaeda in Iraq is on the run after coalition troops successfully defeating them in Mosul. Their energy is spent with combating not only Iraqi and coalition troops but a populace that is tired of insurgencies. Then in Helsinki a baby step was taken towards political reconciliation:
The Helsinki agreement, which was hammered out over meetings in September and April, was signed by 33 politicians from Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish, Turkmen, Communist and other parties.
The document consists of 17 principles, as well as strategies to ensure compliance with those goals. The principles included a commitment to eventually limit arms possession to the government, respect for minority rights and opposition to international and regional influence in Iraq’s internal affairs.
The agreement also included a pledge to integrate the so-called Awakening Councils, and others who have fought against extremists, into state institutions.
This news pleases Andrew Sullivan. Although we should be cautious. James Joyner notes much of the violence is due to domestic factions:
Most obviously, AQI and other foreign fighters have always constituted a tiny fraction of the anti-government forces. Indeed, AQI barely existed when the insurgency started. They were, however, the most violent and ruthless element. Further, well-timed terrorist attacks such as the bombings of the Askariya shrine in Samarra escalated a relatively minor insurgency into a major sectarian conflict.
Even if AQI stays on the mat and the tide of replacements coming in from Syria and elsewhere remains stemmed, there’s still the domestic elements with which to contend. Most significantly, does the Mahdi Army continue its cease fire? If Muqtada al-Sadr and company decide to make another stand, violence could escalate dramatically.
If the internal factions tear apart Iraq that leaves an opening for al Qaeda in Iraq (or its offspring) to fill a vacuum.
As for American political implications Sen. McCain can boast all he wants. Between he and Sen. Obama there’s no comparison. To quote TigerHawk:
Eighteen months ago John McCain argued that the safest way out of Iraq was to win, then withdraw. Barack Obama, parroting the received wisdom of the Democratic foreign policy establishment, said that victory in any meaningful sense was not only unlikely, but that the presence of large numbers of American soldiers actually fed the insurgency and decreased the prospects for stability. On that crucially important decision, at least, it is becoming ever more obvious that McCain was right and Obama was wrong.
UPDATE: It’s great timing for a new Vets for Freedom ad:
[via Instapundit]
