December 22, 2003

Color Scheme

James Joyner has an insightful post on the homeland security color threat scheme and government bureaucracy:

Since the inception of the system, we have always been in either Elevated or High status. Because the level is set by a bureacracy, it will likely always be either Elevated or High. No bureaucrat is going to be willing to take the risk of lowering the level to merely Guarded or--Heaven forfend--Low because, if they do, and an attack happens, heads would roll. Likewise, we're unlikely to see the level raised to Severe unless we're literally in the midst of an attack and already know it. No one is going to be willing to call Red Alert and then not have an attack happen.

The end result is a constant state of alert that becomes "background noise" to the public. Using public choice economics would offer a more complete analysis, but all we really have to know is that much of this is simple CYT (Cover Your Tush). Bureaucracies want to continue to exist. Setting the level too high for an attack that doesn't come is less damaging than setting the level too low and giving the public a false sense of security. However, setting the level too high puts financial stress on state and local governments. These bureaucracies pressure Congressmen who pressure the Department of Homeland Security. The equilibrium color is yellow, the color the scheme started with.

"Level Orange"