July 06, 2004

Ketchup and Mustard

Sen. John Edwards is Kerry's pick for running mate. We now have the John-John ticket (the John-Boy ticket?). This smart decision isn't a surprise. During the Democratic primairies Edwards was lauded by party activists while Kerry won almost all the elections. Edwards ran on a positive, populist "Two Americas" that especially conflicted with Kerry's view on free trade. The traditional mission of the VP candidate is to be a pit bull and attack his opponents. Dick Cheney does that well. If Edwards goes on the warpath how does he square that with the emphasis on positive campaigning he took during the primairies? More importantly, will the media hold Edwards accountable?

The RNC is already on the warpath attacking Edwards for being "a disingenuous, unaccomplished liberal and friend to personal injury trial lawyers." Most interesting are Kerry's quotes about Edwards' lack of political and foreign policy experience. Also interesting is the non-partisan National Journal ranked Edwards as the fourth-most liberal member of the Senate. He was more liberal than Ted Kennedy and Barbara Boxer.

Maybe even more biting to Kerry is the new ad from the Bush-Cheney campaign about Kerry's "first choice" for running mate.

Steven Taylor thinks Edwards was picked for his charism, energy, and to boost the base. "Like the GOP excitement over Jack Kemp in 1996, this situation serves to underscore how un-exciting the nominee is."

James Joyner writes that Edwards' inclusion in the race won't be what hands victory or defeat to Kerry.

Andrew Sullivan calls it a "very smart pick" because of "the profound weakness of Kerry's candidacy - the man himself." That's a back-handed compliment if I ever heard one.

The result of this pick will be a significant bounce in Kerry's poll numbers. He should also narrow the spread in the Iowa Electronic Markets. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 5-10% lead through the Democratic convention and into the GOP convention in September. That lead will evaporate then, and it will be a dogfight until Election Day. I won't make a prediction--way too soon--except that will be very close.

One more thing: is it just me or does "Kerry Edwards" sound like the name of a bad soap opera actor? Just an observation.

"Blue-Blooded Kerry Taps Edwards's Southern Charm"