September 04, 2004
Up, Up, and Away
It's not only TIME that's showing Bush with a substantial bounce from his convention speech and the SwiftVets. Newsweek's poll gives the President an 11-point lead over John Kerry. This poll was of registered voters. Erick Erickson points out that Bush has polled better with likely voters so the President may be even stronger than these numbers indicate. A number that jump out at me is that 65% think Bush has the "stronger leadership qualities" while 47% think that of Kerry. Another interesting number is terrorism and homeland security are the number one issue (28%) while the economy is second (21%). As we near Election Day, voters are becoming more serious about national security. The atrocities in Russia will only harden voters' resolve that Islamist terrorism is the Free World's #1 security issue. This only helps those who can appear to be strong on defense. Unfortunately for Kerry Edwards a political career of opposing many vital defense systems leaves them very vulnerable. They'll have to hope for some awful event to happen that can be blamed on Bush or follow Susan Estrich's advice and find (or make up) a host of skeletons in the closets of Bush and Cheney.
This is more evidence that I'm not much of a political prognosticator.
"I Question the Timing of This Poll!"
UPDATE: Cam Edwards thinks this poll may be hype because they oversampled Republicans. From my quick calculations, 37% of registered voters asked were Republicans. That does seem a bit much, but I haven't found any survey breaking down the percentage of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents.