September 13, 2004

2004 Packers Prediction

It's that time of the year when I demonstrate my football prediction powers. Last year, the Packers were 10-6. I predicted 11-5. Not bad. This year I'll used the same criteria to figure out how they'll do.

Did the Packers Get Better?

In the offseason there was frustration. Coach/general manager Mike Sherman was looking for Brett Favre's eventual replacement. He thought he found it in Tim Couch. After weeks of talking with Cleveland the Packers signed Couch as a free agent. However, learning a new offensive system and a weak arm showed that Couch wasn't the answer. He didn't even make the team.

On defense, cornerback Mike Mackenzie wanted his contract renegotiated. Sherman refused so Mackenzie held out. Training camp came and no Mackenzie. Four pre-season games were played and still no Mackenzie. Now, with the first game of the season at hand, missing anymore time will cost him money. Yet still no Mackenzie. The Packers must have figured there would be problems when they drafted two cornerbacks with their first two picks. Ahmad Carroll and Joey Thomas are fast and eager, but they're rookies who will get played by the crafty veterans in the league.

The Packers tried in the offseason to find a pass rusher to compliment Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila. No one came through. That means either Aaron Kampman, Cletidus Hunt, or even the mammoth Grady Jackson have to generate enough of a pass rush to free up KGB. If that doesn't happen, the Pack will have to blitz which will expose their defensive backs.

On a better note is the arrival of strong safety Mark Roman. He's an upgrade from Antuan Edwards. His presence allows free safety Darren Sharper to be the LeRoy Butler playmaker he's capable of being. He can be aggressive in blitzs as well as taking chances at passes.

Another plus is the entire offensive line is entact this year. This group was the big reason Ahman Green broke the team single-season rushing record. They're tough, nasty, mobile, and one of the best lines in the league.

Overall, with a missing Mackenzie but an intact offensive line makes it a slight loss. But a new defensive scheme could make up for a missing Mackenzie.

What About the Opposition?

The NFC North has improved this year. Detroit has a group of young offensive weapons that scare me. Even though Chicago is starting a rookie at quarterback they signed Thomas Jones as their all-purpose running back. Minnesota is solid with great offensive weapons like Randy Moss and Dante Culpepper, but their defense shows signs of weakness. Even though Detroit has improved I still see this being a Green Bay-Minnesota race for the division title. Don't be surprised if it comes down to final game of the regular season inside the Metrodome.

What's With Intangibles Anyway?

As always if Favre goes down, a chance at a great season goes down the tubes. The only reason Doug Pederson is still on the team is because he knows the offense and Craig Nall has done little to show he's the QB of the future.

Then there's the punters. They drafted B.J. Sander in the third round, but (to put it nicely) he's been erratic. Instead of cutting him, the Packers have two punters on the roster with veteran Bryan Barker as the starter.

Team chemistry is vital in going to that next level. Just ask the no-name defense of New England. On offense, all starters are back. That means they don't need to get comfortable with each other. Timing should be there, and everyone should be on the same page when Favre has to improvise.

My Predictions

With the team's historic troubles playing in domes, I'm assuming the Packers will split games with Detroit and Minnesota. Chicago is rebuilding (again) so I expect a sweep with them. With the non-conference schedule, I can easily seeing them going 8-0 at home. (St. Louis in late November and Jacksonville in December definitely play to the cold-weather team's advantage.) An upset in Indianapolis or Philly could push them to 12-4, but I'll go with 11-5 and the NFC North title. They won't be the number one seed (that'll be Philly) but they'll play their first playoff game at home.

I'd love to say the Packers are Super Bowl bound, but Philadelphia made some great improvements in the off-season. On paper, they're the best team in the NFC. I predict the Pack will have a re-match with the Eagles in the NFC title game, but Philly will prevail again.

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So, who will face Philadelphia? It's so hard to repeat, but New England has a great defense, solid wide receivers, and a winning quarterback. Now, with the addition of Corey Dillion they have a punishing running game. I predict the Eagles vs. the Patriots and an Eagles' victory. I know. I'm really going out on a limb. Of course, I hope I'm wrong, and instead, there's a rematch of Super Bowl XXXI.