September 23, 2004

Bush Leading In Wisconsin--Maybe

New Badger Poll results are out. Bush tops Kerry 52% to 35% in a survey of eligible voters. Right there we see a flaw. Who cares about eligible voters if they aren't even planning on voting? What's more important are surveys of likely voters. ABC News recently did a poll giving Bush a ten-point lead among likely voters.

There's an even more important flaw. 36% of those surveyed called themselves Republicans while only 29% called themselves Democrats.

Also, to get a better sense of the total picture you should look at multiple polls. By doing that the Journal Sentinel comes to this conclusion:

That would put the race about where some outside analysts see it: a Bush advantage, perhaps mid-single digits, but one that is hardly etched in stone.

The Badger Poll's internals bode ill for the challenger. Kerry has a 36% favorable rating, but a 48% unfavorable rating. Bush has a 37-point advantage on the terrorism issue. And the flip-flop label has stuck. Only 16% of those surveyed think Kerry has a consistent record on the issues.

If the political distribution of those surveyed weren't so skewed I'd say this is very bad news for Kerry. It's not good enough for him to just get all the states AlGore did in 2000. Due to demographics, if he only did that Bush would win by a larger margin in the Electoral College. For Kerry to stand a chance of winning he must win Wisconsin. This poll has too many flaws to draw any concrete conclusions. But expect the local radio yappers to jump on this today.

"On Average, Bush Leads State, but Poll Numbers Vary Widely"

[OTB readers should read this post so as to not get too excited about Wisconsin.]