October 03, 2004

Post-Debate Numbers

Bush's numbers are taking a dive on the Iowa Electronic Markets. Much of it coming from the drop in the "Bush with at least 52% of the popular vote" future. But as King pointed out to me in an e-mail the IEM has such little volume a $30 trade can significantly move the market.

On TradeSports Bush's numbers are diving as well. However, Kerry's haven't gone up as steeply.

This comes on the newest Newsweek poll giving Kerry a 47%-45% lead among registered voters. That may explain Bush's dramatic drop on the markets. However, Bush's constant refrain about Kerry's "global test" may be giving traders pause.

Should we be surprised the media will call this a close race? Not if you've been reading TAM enough.

"The Race is On"