October 18, 2004

Who Will Get Nominated?

Will the Oscars be Moore vs. Mel? I thought so last month, but Sean Smith makes me wonder:

Millions of people surely believe that Mel Gibson's "The Passion of the Christ" and Michael Moore's "Fahrenheit 9/11" deserve best-picture Oscar nominations. Unfortunately, most of them don't vote for the Academy Awards. Despite shattering box-office records and dominating headlines for months, these two films face real obstacles in the race for Hollywood's top prize. Of the many high-placed studio executives, producers, Oscar strategists, publicists and Academy members interviewed for this story, most think that "Fahrenheit's" chances depend on the results of the presidential election, and all say that a "Passion" best-picture nod is almost unthinkable. Hollywood, with its Jewish roots, did not experience "The Passion" as a transcendent religious and emotional event, as so many other viewers did. Some haven't forgiven Gibson for even making the film, let alone forgotten his father, Hutton, and his inflammatory statements about the history of the Jews. "I'll tell you why 'The Passion' won't be nominated," snaps one industry executive. "Happily, there are too many people in the Academy who believe the Holocaust actually happened."

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Moore's "Fahrenheit" is facing an entirely different problem. Its anti-Bush, antiwar content plays like gangbusters in liberal Hollywood, but even people who love it wonder if it rises to the level of artistry and timelessness worthy of a best-picture nomination. "Even if they think Moore's the modern equivalent of Thomas Paine," says one executive, "that doesn't mean they think it's great filmmaking." The movie was considered almost certain to win the best-documentary Oscar until Moore decided he would rather broadcast the movie on pay-per-view television the night before the election, making it ineligible in that category, and put his chips on a best-picture bid instead. "It's thumbing your nose at a sure thing," says one rival. "Even I don't have that much gall."

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Most insiders believe its fate is inextricably tied to the election—but they can't agree on whether a Bush or a Kerry win helps Moore the most. "If John Kerry wins, 'Fahrenheit' gets nominated," says one exec. "Then it becomes 'the movie that changed the course of American history,' and the perception will be that Moore contributed to Bush's loss." Or not. "Its chances are zero if Kerry wins, because then the protest is over and everybody feels better," says another source. And, says one Academy member, "If Kerry loses, it gets nominated as a big 'f-- you' to Bush."

"Will Oscar Listen?"