February 20, 2005

Conservative Splits but Still Has Big Mo

The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel's Craig Gilbert wandered around CPAC and wrote about the rifts in the conservative movement that may play a significant role in who the GOP nominates in 2008. An example is Karl Rove's view of Bushism that has set the stage for a generation of GOP dominance versus Pat Buchanan's America-as-empire. He's right to an extent. Many streams flow into conservatism's bay. In the 60s Frank Meyer's "fusionism" glued traditionalists, libertarians, and anti-communists together. Ronald Reagan continued to bind the groups together with his tough stance opposing the Soviets and cutting taxes. Today, President Bush holds the movement together by fighting the Islamist War and publiclly displaying his morality.

What's missing from Gilbert's analysis is electoral momentum. That's on the Right's side. Since 1994, on the national stage the Democrats have only won (1996 Presidential election and 1998 Congressional races) when Bill Clinton was the national question. With every Presidential and Congressional loss the loud, screaming Kos-like/Deaniac voices become more dominant. That anger and frustration at the winning Republicans turns into anger toward the country that keeps on handing them power. Electing Howard Dean, M.D. as DNC chairman proves to me they're still seething. It's still public catharsis instead of serious introspection. If Virginia Postrel is right that "the party that hates America loses" expect continued Democratic defeats.

"Battles Likely as GOP Plots Its Post-Bush Course"