May 31, 2005

Measuring McCain

Sen. John McCain may be the de facto leader of the Senate but there will have to be some big, unexpected political shifts for him to win the GOP nomination in 2008--still way too soon to talk about.

His minuses for winning the Presidency include:

• His age. He'll be 72 in 2008.
  
• He's a Senator. No Senator has been elected President since the youthful JFK.
  
• Campaign Finance Reform--A.K.A. First Amendment Restriction. How he'd make it through a Republican primary with every conservative interest group slamming him as an enemy of political speech is beyond me.
  

On the plus side:

• He's beloved by the MSM. He's sure to get plenty of positive coverage. Despite their falling reputation most people in 2008 will still get their news from them.
  
• He's a "maverick." The American public still has an infatuation with politicians who appear to be bucking both parties. This despite no inkling that McCain would run as an independent.
  
• The GOP is ticking people off. Any governing party will do that to some extent, but Bushian big government conservatism isn't pleasing many. Using the Islamist War as an excuse isn't cutting it.
  

The way candidates are lining up the Senate curse may mean little. I can't think of a non-Senator from either party who is preparing to run and has a legitimate shot. But we aren't even up to the 2006 Congressional races. So lots can and will happen. One thing is for sure. Sen. McCain will not be getting TAM's endorsement--for whatever that's worth.

"The Worst That Could Happen"

UPDATE: Chris Muir sums up McCain (and his ego) in two Day by Day strips.

UPDATE II: Mickey Kaus (why can't the man use some real weblog software?) thinks McCain should run as an independent. He thinks he'd immediately have a based of frustrated Perot voters (whose wack jobs who ran the Reform Party?). But McCain isn't wealthy. Who would fund his campaign? Maybe he'd hire the Howard Dean, M.D. net fundraising team. Just don't hire the loons that blew through his $40 million.

[via Instapundit]