September 12, 2005

A Perfect Storm

By the post title I don't mean Hurricane Katrina. I mean the circumstances lining up for significant GOP losses in November 2006. Whether it's true or not there is a perception reinforced by a MSM not inclined toward President Bush that the federal government failed Gulf Coast residents by not acting fast enough (compared to what no one says). Even though most people aren't thinking about the political ramifications of Katrina the constant chorus of "Bush failed!" could become tar on GOP Congressional candidates. An effect of Katrina's path of destruction is the new federal spending already passed or soon to be to help rebuild. Fiscal conservatives don't want rebuilding costs added to a large federal deficit. The response from other Republicans is less than encouraging:

In closed-door meetings, fiscal conservatives have begged their colleagues not to put the cost of disaster relief on the government credit card for future generations to carry.

Among those who have protested in these private sessions is Rep. Jeff Flake (news, bio, voting record) (R-Ariz.), a fiscal conservative who said his colleagues greeted his suggestion that disaster relief be offset by other cuts with "stone cold silence." He added, "You would have thought I was a Martian."

The Bush coalition has always been tenuous. What's bound the Right wing together has been the Islamist War and tax cuts. Budget hawks and constitutionalists have been upset with No Child Left Behind, the Medicare drug entitlement, and the bloated highway bill. Free traders have gotten ticked at Bush's steel tariffs. Libertarians found fault with stem cell research policy and Bush's gay marriage stance. Yet the Islamist attacks on Sep. 11, 2001 forced all parts of the coalition to put their smaller concerns aside in the name of national security.

In a way, President Bush is a "victim" of winning a second term. Thomas Barnett sees a flaw in Bush's CEO-as-commander-in-chief approach:

But also because his CEO-like faith in delegated authority wore out its welcome. Notice how the CEO presidencies do well for the first term, with the A Team hot off the election, and then they start sucking as the B Team starts rising to the top posts? In some places, like Defense, the talent pool is deep enough (especially for the Republicans), but elsewhere . . . and FEMA is just so elsewhere.

So when Katrina hits, five of the top 8 officials had virtually no prior relevant experience before assuming their posts. Meanwhile, the real talent had left, as so often happens as the second term unfolds.

Working in D.C. with any significant authority takes so much out of people. Workaholics love it, but dealing with agencies, Congress, and the press becomes a marathon. It's not surprise there is change over from one term to the next. (It's even more amazing that Donald Rumsfeld decided to stay on at DoD.)

Upsetting a part of the base combined with second-string bureaucrats means Karl Rove has his work cut out for him in maintaining the GOP majority.

Election Day 2006 is way too far away. So much could happen between now and then. In another post Barnett notes that the mid-term elections won't take place in a vacuum.

The discounting on this presidency has begun internationally.
...
We are a bit over a year from the midterm elections. After that, the discounting will skyrocket. We're talking months here to move some big piles overseas, and how much of that coming year will be lost to Katrina?

Democratic victory would cause further discounting of the Bush Presidency. Foreign leaders would figure the Democrats had the momentum in claiming the White House in 2008--something I think they'll do anyway. Get ready for divided government in a few years. If GOP defeat (look at the Senate; the gerrymandered House is safe) does happen next year many pundits will look back to Katrina's aftermath. I'll be looking even further to that awful Medicare drug entitlement.

"Fiscal Conservatives Riled"