Doubts Raised about North Korean Nuke Test

Something doesn't pan out about North Korea's supposed nuclear test. We have seismic readings but still no indication of any radiation.

Results from an initial air sampling after North Korea's announced nuclear test showed no evidence of radioactive particles that would be expected from a successful nuclear detonation, a U.S. government intelligence official said Friday.

The test results do not necessarily mean the North Korean blast was not a nuclear explosion, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to disclose the sampling results.

Nonetheless, the readings reinforce uncertainty about the size and success of Monday's underground explosion, which North Korea has trumpeted as a nuclear test. It also keeps alive lingering questions about whether it was in fact a nuclear blast. Data from seismic sensors has already indicated the explosion was smaller than expected, but that is not a conclusive finding on the question of whether the explosion was nuclear.

There are three possibilities:

1. It was a very small explosion used only as a "proof of concept."

2. The North Koreans failed.

3. The North Koreans faked the test.
   

I'm leaning towards #2. Their missile tests this summer were also duds. However, it is possible Kim Jong Il was tired of Iran getting so much attention for their nuclear program. He might have wanted the United States' attention focused squarely on him to advance his interests. So he could have ordered a few tons of conventional explosives blown up to fake a nuke test.

The lack of evidence emboldens China and Russia from voting for a tough resolution on the U.N. Security Council. Their thinking has to be if there's not that much of a threat no need for such drastic measures.

"N. Korea Air Sample has No Radioactivity"

"Did North Korea Fake It?"

North Korea Goes Nuclear

North Korea says they tested a nuke. The USGS is calling it a 4.2 earthquake. "Light" by earthquake standards. Right now, we have to figure out if they're telling the truth. There was some event noticed by seismographs [also here, here, here, here, and here]around North Korea. Whether it was a nuclear test or not we'll have to wait and see. Geologists will have to study the p-waves and the s-waves to confirm the test.

Let's assume the North Koreans did it. They said they would, and why should we think they wouldn't? They weren't getting enough attention from only threatening to perform a test. Now it's kind of hard to ignore a fruitcake with a real, live nuke. I'd like to know how many North Koreans had to starve so Kim Jong Il could have his new, super-powered weapon? The starving masses will be pleased that "It marks a historic event as it greatly encouraged and pleased the KPA and people that have wished to have powerful self-reliant defense capability." Excuse me while I boil some tree bark soup to sympathize with their oppression.

The ball's in China's court. If they don't mind Kim Jong Il having nukes then they'll do nothing. And if that happens Japan will certainly have to build a defensive nuclear arsenal of their own which won't make Bejing happy.

"North Korea Says Nuclear Test Successful"

"Report: North Korea Tests Nuke; Update: Confirmed?"

"Norks Already Tested a Nuke? (Update: One Administration Official Confirms)"

UPDATE: Stop the ACLU went link-crazy so check him out for lots of reaction.

I'm uncomfortable with North Korea having a real, live nuke, but only difference is we now know it works. When India and Pakistan developed nukes I know many thought South Asia would be the next place for a nuclear war. It hasn't happened yet. Maybe there's something about possessing a weapon so destructive a leader becomes extremely wary of using it. One can argue that the U.S and U.S.S.R. didn't go to war because both sides knew it could quickly come to a nuclear holocaust.

There are two big problems with North Korea having nukes. The first is we don't know how rational Kim Jong Il is. If all he wants to do is live and stay in control of his communist state then he can be deterred. If he's a paranoid nutball then I'd start making plans for building fallout shelters. Second, he could pass on a nuke or its technology to terrorists. But even if terrorists succeeded in a nuclear attack on the U.S. the trail would eventually come back to Pyongyang.

If anything this will push Japan futher to build its military especially missile defense and could push them to build a nuclear arsenal of its own. That won't please Bejing.

UPDATE II: Cambodia doesn't approve of North Korea's test but doesn't want to do anything about it.

On the financial front Asian stock markets are down and oil prices are going up.

North Korea to Conduct Nuclear Test

North Korea doesn't think it's getting enough world attention so it's announced it will conduct a nuclear test:

Using the acronym for the country's official name, the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, the North's Foreign Ministry said in the official English translation of its statement that: "The DPRK will in the future conduct a nuclear test under the condition where safety is firmly guaranteed."

The statement gave no precise date of when a test might occur.

Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Aso called the purported nuclear test plan a threat to peace, and said a nuclear test would have graver implications than North Korean missile tests in July. Aso called the North's self-described plan "totally unforgivable," and said Japan would react "sternly" if the North conducted a nuclear test, according to Kyodo News agency.

China, North Korea's neighbor, ally and chief benefactor, had no immediate comment. The North Korean announcement appeared to have caught Chinese officialdom off-guard, coming in the midst of a weeklong National Day holiday.

"N. Korea Says It Will Conduct Nuke Test"

Washington Post on Chavez's Hot Air

Many, including me, paid more attention to what Hugo Chavez said last week (and what book he hawked) at the U.N. than how he's leading Venezuela especially its oil industry. Thankfully the Washington Post editorial board points out Chavez's ineptitude:

Since Mr. Chávez took power seven years ago, Venezuela has mismanaged its oil so disastrously that production may have fallen by almost half, according to the estimates of outsiders, reducing global oil supply by a bit more than 1 percent. Along with natural disasters and Nigerian rebels, Mr. Chávez's ineptitude has contributed to high energy prices.

It takes sustained determination to reduce output by that much, and Mr. Chávez has provided it. He inherited a competent national oil company that produced three times more per worker than its Mexican counterpart. He immediately starved it of investment capital and dispatched ignorant political cronies to oversee it. When this abuse provoked a strike, Mr. Chávez fired the staff en masse, getting rid of two-thirds of the skilled employees and managers.

"Hurricane Chávez" [via Betsy's Page]

Sen. Harkin Doesn't Bash Chavez

Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) can "understand" Hugo Chavez's "frustration" with the U.S. That's far from Reps. Rangel's and Pelosi's denunciations of the Venezuelan autocrat. He then turned a question about Chavez into your standard criticism of President Bush's foreign policy.

"Harkin Defends Venezuelan President's U.N. Speech against Bush"

Democrats Bash Chavez

I know they're doing it because elections are about six weeks away still I'm please Reps. Charles Rangel and Nancy Pelosi ripped Hugo Chavez:

"I just want to make it abundantly clear to Hugo Chavez or any other president - don't come to the United States and think because we have problems with our president that any foreigner can come to our country and not think that Americans do not feel offended when you offend our Chief of State," Rangel said.

"Any demeaning public attack against him is viewed by Republicans and Democrats, and all Americans, as an attack on all of us," Rangel said.

House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi, who spent most of the day criticizing the Bush administration's economic and environmental policies, told reporters that Chavez's performance at the U.N. "demeaned" himself and the his nation.

"He fancies himself as a modern day Simon Bolivar, but all he is an everyday thug," Pelosi said.

It's good to know political expediency still trumps Bush Derangement Syndrome in Democratic leaders.

Too bad the same can't be said for the wackos at Democratic Underground. Here are some good comments on Rangel's remarks:

• OneBlueSky: "when that president represents an immediate threat to world peace . . .
  and, indeed, to the survival of humanity and of the planet itself, I'd say that criticism is quite appropriate -- anytime, any place, and by anyone . . . "
  
• Rex: " Well then he can go and goosestep with his new best friend
  George Bush. I hear Lieberman was a great progressive at one time and pissed his whole career away due to a kiss by the Devil."
  
• El Zopilote: "What is U.S. Congressman Charles Rangél doing? Is he betraying the Democratic Party? He's bashing Hugo Chavez and defending Bush. It is very disturbing and alarming to see a Democrat, especially a monority, to critize an international Hispanic leader and ally by expressing sympathy for Bush and his racist Republicans. Has Mr. Rangél gone loco? Has he turned into a rogue Democrat? Is he a traitor? Hopefully Mr. Rangél has an ulterior motive. But as Democrats we must be careful not to create the slightest impression that our strong united coalition has a crack in it. I consider all minorities (African-Americans, Hispanics of course, Muslims, American Indians and all to be my brothers in the cause of solidarity). We must remain united. Solidarity is the key to victory. We do not need dissent.
  

"Chavez Catches Hell For 'Devil' Slam"

"Rangel and Pelosi Denounce Chavez "Devil" Comments"

"Rangel to Chavez: Shut Up"

"Video: Rangel Warns Chavez Not to Attack “My President”; Update: Gratuitous DU Thread Added"

The Meat of Chavez's U.N. Speech

AcademicElephant at Redstate read past Hugo Chavez's "el diablo" remarks and found something quite disturbing:

Mr. Chavez deliberately used the same term as the President, and he deliberately used the first person plural. "We are extremists," he said in what was the true meat of the speech. Do not be blinded by the theatrics: Mr. Chavez today used the bully pulpit of the United Nations General Assembly to publicly embrace the terrorist forces of the Middle East, to claim common cause with them, and to suggest that they have a legitimate grievance against an intolerable aggressor. In this context, Mr. Chavez' apparently nutty remarks about the 9/11 attacks make perfect sense. He is rallying the likes of al Qaeda, Hezbollah and Hamas, and offering them justification, protection and support in the western hemisphere. More overtly and blatantly than any other world leader, he is hanging out his shingle as a state sponsor of terrorism. There have been rumors swirling recently of Islamic extremists finding haven in Venezuela. Mr. Chavez confirmed them today. Come to Venezuela, he might have well said. We can help you out. And look how much closer you'll be to Miami. Or to Washington and New York, for that matter.

It's time to find a few more large oil deposits to drive the price of crude down and (hopefully) take Chavez's regime down with it.

"About that Stench from Turtle Bay..."

Raging Muslims' Selective Historic Memory

Gail Hapke looked into the context of the quote Pope Benedict used to suposedly insult Muslims. Her finding is facinating:

How interesting indeed, that in the old days of Muslim ascendency, no one offered to cut off the head of the questioning infidel, although they could easily have done so. Instead, his gracious hosts encouraged him to speak his mind and amused themselves by answering his objections and correcting his misconceptions, as they understood them.

The behavior of the Qadi and his Sultan, in my opinion, should be celebrated as one of the high points of Muslim civilization. Has that civilization declined so much in the intervening centuries, that the way debates are settled is now by vitriol and violence instead of by reasoned and dignified discourse?

As usual in the blogosphere, read the whole thing. Don't be like some violent, rampaging Muslims. What I've learned is although Islam is deeply in touch with its history it's selective. I'm guessing fundamentalist Muslims see the tolerance Muslim leaders practiced in Manuel II Palaiologos' day to skew from the "true Islam." But realize that tolerance was practiced during Islam's heyday when it was a world power and Europe feared its encroachment.

"Who Was the 'Educated Persian?'"

Chavez Calls Bush "The Devil" at U.N.

Venezualan president Hugo Chavez is just so darn entertaining. Today at the U.N., he held up a copy of Noam Chomsky's Hegemony and Survival and called President Bush "the devil."

Something was lost in translation for Deutsche Presse-Agenteur because they lead with "Venezuela's President Hugo Chavez compared US President George W Bush to 'the devil.'" There was no comparison. Chavez called Bush "the devil." Chavez went on to say, "The devil came here and this place still smells today." Imagine the stench after Chavez left.

In his rant Chavez appealed to the "people of the United States and the world to halt this threat, which is like a sword hanging over our head." He's hoping the Democrats take the House so Rep. John Conyers can start impeachment hearings. Remember, a vote for the Democrats is a vote for a Hugo Chavez-backed overthrow of the Bush Presidency.

I expect sales of Chomsky's book to jump while Bush bashers go out of their way to praise Chavez for "speaking truth to power."

"Chavez Calls Bush 'Devil' in Insult-Riddled Speech to U.N."

UPDATE: Greg Tinti has video from Chavez's speech. Chavez said the U.S. was "the greatest threat looming over our planet" and American actions are "placing at risk the very survivial of the human species."

Not only did his speech reek of anti-Americanism but the audience's reaction did too. They laughed at his "jokes" and give him warm applause when Chavez was finished. There's one thing I agree with the oil-powered maniac: move the U.N. to Venezuela. The U.S. doesn't deserve such petulant haters here.

[via Wizbang]

UPDATE II: Rob at Say Anything sighs then adds:

You know what the biggest problem with the UN is? It has become forum where the rantings of truly evil dictators like Hugo Chavez and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (and yes, my liberal friends, those men are dictators as there wasn't much democracy in the "elections" that put them into power) get equal footing along side statements from the American president and other leaders of western democracies. By elevating these tyrants to equal status with the leaders of the free world we, in effect, grant legitimacy to their causes and their evil regimes.

As an American, I'm tired of seeing my country be used as a whipping boy at the United Nations. From the bogus accusations of people like Chavez to the condescending prattle from representatives of European powers the United States cannot win at the world body. We are criticized no matter what we do.

What I think the UN needs is a wake call, and the best way to do that is for the United States to begin to seriously consider the amount of money it sends to the organization each year. Because right now it seems like all we're doing is funding a forum for the most insensible of our critics, not to mention an organization that has become so replete with corruption and bureaucracy that it has become a mockery of its original intents.

Response to Pope's Words Shows Little Progress in Muslim World

Responding to Pope Benedict's erudite speech on faith and reason with murder and firebombing doesn't produce sympathy. Yet that's what too many Muslims have done the past few days.

Daniel Johnson sees Pope Benedict's role as similar to Pope John Paul II's fight against athiest Communism. Dad29 wonders if bad MSM reporting blew up Benedict's brief mention of Islam into something more deadly.

I'm at a similar place at Australian Cardinal George Pell:

But Cardinal Pell today backed Pope Benedict, saying the violent reaction to his comments on Islam and violence illustrated his fears.

"The violent reactions in many parts of the Islamic world justified one of Pope Benedict's main fears," Cardinal Pell said in a statement.

"They showed the link for many Islamists between religion and violence, their refusal to respond to criticism with rational arguments, but only with demonstrations, threats and actual violence.

"Our major priority must be to maintain peace and harmony within the Australian community, but no lasting achievements can be grounded in fantasies and evasions."

It's been five years since the Sep. 11 attacks and I'm still waiting for moderate Muslims to begin fighting for their faith. If you want to talk about a battle that has made zero progress it's the one between moderate and extremist Muslims.

Fidel Castro Getting Better

Bad news for freedom lovers. Fidel Castro is feeling better and has lost some weight.

"Slimmer Castro Says 'The Worst is Over' Since His Op"

At Least Al Gore Accepted Defeat

South of the border the Leftist Mexican presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador has organized protests that disrupt Mexico City. All because he didn't get the most votes in July's election. He thinks he was robbed and everyone's in on the conspiracy, even the electoral tribunal that today rejects most of his charges of voter fraud. Obrador has called for another massive rally where he could be named the leader of a civil resistence movement that would "continue to block streets and cripple traffic in Mexico City for years."

Thankfully, AlGore was more serious in 2000. He may have gone completely nutty since then, but he cared enough about the country not to set up a permanent protest camp on the Washington Mall.

"Leftist Destabilization Of Mexico"

August 22 Came and Only the Romanians Noticed

Earlier this month Islam scholar Bernard Lewis wondered if Iran would do something earth-shaking on 08.22:

In Islam, as in Judaism and Christianity, there are certain beliefs concerning the cosmic struggle at the end of time--Gog and Magog, anti-Christ, Armageddon, and for Shiite Muslims, the long awaited return of the Hidden Imam, ending in the final victory of the forces of good over evil, however these may be defined. Mr. Ahmadinejad and his followers clearly believe that this time is now, and that the terminal struggle has already begun and is indeed well advanced. It may even have a date, indicated by several references by the Iranian president to giving his final answer to the U.S. about nuclear development by Aug. 22. This was at first reported as "by the end of August," but Mr. Ahmadinejad's statement was more precise.

What is the significance of Aug. 22? This year, Aug. 22 corresponds, in the Islamic calendar, to the 27th day of the month of Rajab of the year 1427. This, by tradition, is the night when many Muslims commemorate the night flight of the prophet Muhammad on the winged horse Buraq, first to "the farthest mosque," usually identified with Jerusalem, and then to heaven and back (cf Koran XVII.1). This might well be deemed an appropriate date for the apocalyptic ending of Israel and if necessary of the world. It is far from certain that Mr. Ahmadinejad plans any such cataclysmic events precisely for Aug. 22. But it would be wise to bear the possibility in mind.

Being a historian means you're a better examiner of the past than predictor of the future. The big news is Iranian troops captured a Romanian oil rig in the Persian Gulf:

Romania's Foreign Ministry called on Iranian authorities to immediately free Romanian crew members being held by the troops who took over the rig. The rig operator said seven Indian crew members had been released but 20 Romanians were still detained.

"We are dealing with a commercial dispute that is being treated in an extreme way by the Iranian authorities," Medar told Realitatea TV. He added that Iranian authorities had not confirmed the incident. Iranian officials and state media offered no immediate statements.

Bloomberg has details on what happened:

An Iranian naval vessel fired on the rig owned by Romania's Grup Servicii Petroliere (GSP) in the Salman field and took control of its radio room at about 7:00 a.m. local time, Lulu Tabanesku, Grup's representative in the United Arab Emirates said in a phone interview from Dubai today.

"The Iranians fired at the rig's crane with machine guns,'' Tabanesku said. "They are in control now and we can't contact the rig.'' The Romanian company has 26 workers on the platform, he said.

Who knew the Iranians had it in for the Romanians? They do want to be a part of the prosporous West therefore they're the infidel. To the Iranian mullahs nothing good will happen to the infidel.

Dan Riehl sees this as Iran flexing its muscle in the Strait of Hormuz.

Since Romania is a member of NATO this could be construed as an act of war against the whole alliance. But any alliance that includes France is worth as much as Jacques Chirac's word when it comes to Lebanon. It's time to think about turning some of Ford's excess production capacity into war-time use just in case Iran doesn't want to be contained. The Marines could use some new equipment.

Castro Makes TV Appearance

Fidel Castro, his brother Raul, and Hugo Chavez were shown on Cuban television hanging out in Fidel's hospital room:

Cuban state television on Monday aired the first video of Fidel Castro since he stepped down as president to recover from surgery, showing the bedridden Cuban leader joking with his brother and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

Castro appeared tired and pale, yet alert in the videotaped encounter, speaking quietly but clearly enjoying himself as he chatted with Chavez, his close friend and political ally. Acting president Raul Castro was also present for the encounter on his brother's 80th birthday.

As the men bantered back and forth, Castro's voice was inaudible. He was later shown in animated conversation with Chavez, but music played over his words.

Chavez told Castro he sat down to pray when he learned of the Cuban leader's illness and operation, and said "that was a horrible day." But the Venezuelan leader also was optimistic, saying, "Your capacity to recover is impressive."

The videotape showed the friends sharing a snack and looking at an album of photographs showing them together — including one from a trip Castro took to Venezuela during an earlier birthday. Sentimental music accompanied the footage, which lasted about 10 minutes.

CNN has some footage. [via Babalu Blog]

"Cuban TV Airs Video of Ailing Castro"

Fidel's Photos Faked?

There's been some talk about the authenticity of this photo of Fidel Castro released Sunday.

The photo looks real to me except for the missing age spots Sticky Notes noticed.

While Sunday's photo is good evidence that Fidel is still alive these photos of the Cuban dictator with Hugo Chavez posted by Sean Gleeson may indicate his health isn't so great. Gleeson writes,

The photos seem to show Fidel and Hugo writing notes to each other on a little tablet. I thought, perhaps Fidel was writing because he has lost his voice. But then, why is Hugo writing back? Has Fidel gone deaf too? Or perhaps they had secret matters to discuss, and couldn’t mention them aloud with Raul in the room.

"Conflicting Images????" [via Micro Persuasion]

Castro Releases Letter on 80th Birthday

Fidel Castro appears to be looking good after surgery. I'll let the blogosphere's photoexperts go over it, but the picture looks legit to me. Too bad.

"Castro "Better" on 80th Birthday"

Cuba Fears the U.S.

Cuba says it's the United States' fault for the news blackout on Fidel Castro's condition. Even with U.S. troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and no sign from President Bush that American troops would take part in any operation in Lebanon National assembly speaker Ricardo Alarcon still fears the "Yanqui" crossing south from Florida and taking things over.

It's the typical Communist Cuban way: where there are problems blame the Americans. It's kept Castro's prison island safely in his hands for over 40 years. Why mess with a good thing?

You want to see a real threat from the U.S.? Let see an Indian casino open up in Havana along with a Dodge dealership. No, scratch that, a Kia dealership. One of those Korean buckets of bolts would seem like a luxury to those who've been jury-rigging their cars for decades.

"Cuba 'Faces Threat from US'"

Pumping Up Raul Castro

Cuba's government newspaper Granma published a history lesson on the bravery of Raúl Castro Ruz, Fidel Castro's brother and temporary leader of the communist Island prison. During his trial in 1953 by Batista regime prosecutors Raúl defiantly said,

When they took a statement from me in the Bivouac, I assumed responsibility for the Movement because I supposed that they had killed Fidel, I knew that Abel had been assassinated and somebody had to assume responsibility for that action which was frustrated in the first attempt. But, with Fidel being alive, fortunately, things have fallen back into place. I am a simple soldier who was assigned a post and a mission.

In bold letters the Granma story reads, "This is a story that should not be ignored in the context of today’s events."

Fidel's recovery must not be that assured that the state press needs to pump up Raul as a hero of the Revolution who is willing to take command when needed but also cede power. It's an interesting bit of cult of personality in the making.

"When Raúl Castro Assumed Responsibility for the Assault on the Moncada Garrison"

"Cuba Launches Campaign Touting Fidel's Designated Successor"

Berlin's Spirit Questions Bush Doctrine

James Pinkerton gets a little too cute with his "talk" with Isaiah Berlin's ghost in an attempt to paint President Bush as a French-style revolutionary (don't tell the French) with little understanding of current world realities. To sum it up Pinkerton/Berlin criticize the President for promoting human freedom as the cure to Man's political problems. For Pinkerton/Berlin that's too single-minded.

However, the idea of liberty is a large, wide-ranging concept. It covers the ability to trade freely with one's fellow man, to speak and protest one's government, to create art free of government sanction, the ability to worship as one pleases, and so on and so on. Freedom is an all-encompassing concept. It's an abstraction of a host of related ideas. With Berlin's words Pinkerton reduces human liberty into "one totalistic thing" something Berlin warns against.

Maybe Pinkerton/Berlin would approve of Thomas Barnett's idea of the pursuit of connectedness, economically, culturally, and politically. Then, that might be playing word games like Pinkerton/Berlin did with freedom.

When President Bush talks about spreading freedom across the globe he doesn't mean there's the one American form or that nations with little history of freedom to instantly become as free as the U.S. No proponents of freedom's expansion believe Iraq, Lebanon, or the rest of the Middle East will become Switzerland anytime soon. Pinkerton/Berlin doesn't offer any words from President Bush to suggest otherwise.

"Grave Wisdom from a Grave Oxford Don"

Israel Blockading Lebanon

Israel has now implemented an air and sea blockade on Lebanon:

Israel is imposing an air and sea blockade on Lebanon as part of a major offensive over two soldiers captured by the militant group Hezbollah.
Israeli ships have entered Lebanese water to block ports, and the country's only international airport is closed after Israeli air strikes on Thursday.

The military operation in Lebanon could be long:

A high-ranking IDF source said that the current operation, dubbed Operation Just Reward, would be "long" and could last up to several months, or "as long as it takes to destroy the Hizbullah's ability to launch attacks against Israel."

"Israel Imposes Lebanon Blockade"

"Israeli Warplanes Attack Beirut Airport"

Flag Waving is "Epidemic"

If this story from AFP, France's wire service, is any indication we know just doesn't "get" the United States. Chantal Valery declares our flag-flying "a true epidemic." Patriotism and love of country is something some people don't understand. It's usually those, like NY Times editors who see themselves as post-nationalist and above red state things like that.

"US 'Flag Epidemic' Reaches Peak on Fourth of July" [via OTB]

Missile Defense Activated on North Korea Fears

The intelligence coming out of North Korea must be sketchy. There have been reports since Sunday that a Taepodong-2 was fueled and ready for launch. Yet there's been no launch. What we do know is the U.S. missile defense is on alert, and a lot of people are freaking out.

"Report: U.S. Activates Missile Defense System" [via digg]

Possible Media Ban on Canadian Terrorist Suspects

There's one guy hoping there's a media ban on Canada's terrorism case: Ed Morrissey. He had a pretty good run going around the Adscam trial. If his back stops bothering him he'll probably be fed plenty of good stuff from the hearings and trials.

"Lawyers Blast Media Ban in Canada Terrorism Case"

Poland Denies Another Report of CIA Secret Prisions

A Council of Europe report again claims there are/were secret CIA prisons across Europe where terrorist suspsects are/were hidden. Poland was named specifically.

Switzerland's Dick Marty, lead investigator behind the report has friends in the U.S. intelligence community:

Marty, who didn't have the power to compel the release of documents, used ``evidence from national and international air- traffic control authorities, as well as sources inside intelligence services, including in the United States'' to compile the report, the council said.

So leakers are talking to Europeans with an anti-American axe to grind along with reporters.

Janusz Onyszkiewicz, Poland's deputy head of the European Parliament responds:

I think it's a great exaggeration. Obviously, the CIA cooperates with secret services of al countries, Poland included. After all, the United States is our very close ally, so there is no wonder we have close links. But reading this paper, I see that all the allegations are very poorly substantiated, there is only hearsay. There is only one case of one flight to an airfield in Poland, which allegedly brought in some people to be detained, but there was no other flight which took them away! So, everything is very circumstantial and poorly documented.

...

The author of this report, senator Marty, quotes some undisclosed informers from CIA and also people from Human Rights Watch, but there's nothing concrete, really. It's just an allegation. I doubt whether it would be possible to have such a detention center in Poland. Especially, because the place indicated as a potential place where people are being kept is really an ammunition bunker next to the airfield.

Reporter Pawel Wronski supports Onyszkiewicz's claim about the airfield:

I was at Szymany airport, but there is no possibility to build a prison there where the CIA can keep people, because there are no fences around this airport. No one has given me any information where these prisons are in Poland.

Both Onyszkiewicz and Wronski think the report is just another instance of America-bashing.

"Warsaw Rejects Accusations of Harbouring CIA Prisons"

"U.K., Other European States Aided CIA, Report Says"

Making the Best of a Bad Situation

The biggest problem with Iran is all the options available aren't great. To steal from Jon Henke, "it's important to note that we don't have a lot of good options." Launching an invasion would require moving large amounts of troops from Asia and Europe. Along with that is the potential for Iranian-sympathizing Shities in Iraq to create a second front. Then there are the fears from other Persian Gulf states as noted by Barry McCaffery:

U.S. public diplomacy and rhetoric about confronting Iranian nuclear weapons is scaring neighbors in the Gulf. They will not support another war. They have no integrated missile and interceptor air defense. They have no credible maritime coastal defense system to protect their ports and oil production facilities. Our Mid-East allies believe correctly that they are ill-equipped to deal with Iranian strikes to close the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea. They do not think they can handle politically or militarily a terrorist threat nested in their domestic Shia populations.

India and China are growing economies that need cheap energy to lift their people out of poverty. Economic sanctions won't hold very long if at all.

But the idea of that lunatic Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or the mullahs having the bomb is frightening. Too bad it's probably inevitable they will develop a nuclear weapon. The technology to do it is over 60 years old. The basic concept is found in any college-level (and probably high school-level) physics textbook. The barriers to entry entail enriched uranium. Iranians are a very proud people. While not being fans of their regime they don't appreciate the outside world ordering them around. That makes Iranians very similar to Americans.

The best approach to Iran is to accept the fact they will have some kind of nuclear industry. Jon Henke goes into details of an agreement that would monitor Iran to keep it peaceful, but it should be assumed that someday they will have a nuclear weapon. The West needs to work to destable the unpopular theocracy. The problem with Iran having a nuke is that it's an authoritarian nation that supports anti-West terrorism. An nuclear Iran with a regime of liberty in place of the mullahs would be much less of a threat to Israel, the United States, and the West. Look at India. She is a nuclear, democratic power moving down the path to further liberty and economic prosperity. A nuclear India isn't a threat to the U.S. or the West.

Before the announcement of U.S. consession Tom Barrnett wrote,

The "grand bargain" with Iran gives us something the region has long desperately needed: a regional security regime (starts as a CSCE-like affair and slowly migrates into something more tangible) that puts Iran in a comfortable-enough place that external security "threats" are no longer enough to hold off popular domestic impulses for reform. CSCE got you Walesa and the rest in East Europe (again, thank Nixon and Henry and just pat Ronnie and Maggie and JP II on the backs), because it created a regional forum to push individual economic/human rights and that got you the asssertive, impatient public that ultimately took Reagan's rhetoric and made it real.

It's not the U.S. boldly liberating Iran through war, diplomacy, or economic sanctions. This approach will take time and be organic. But given the constraints at hand it's the best we've got.

I'm sure many like James Joyner and Alan Warms are screaming, "WTF?" But options are limited unless the U.S. and the West wants to go to war with Iran and accept all the retaliation and high energy costs that will come with it.

"Report: Incentive Package Includes U.S. Giving Iran Nuke Technology"

It Pays to Be a Dictator

Become a communist dictator, hold on to power with an iron fist, and you too can be worth $900 million like Fidel Castro. All of that is blood money.

"Castro Worth $900 Million: Forbes"

UPDATE: Babalu Blog: "Some embargo, eh?"

Will They Kill Kenny?

Air Arabia, a low-cost Middle East airline, uses some cartoon characters that bare a striking resemblence to the South Park kids.

"Arab Airline Hijacks Kids of South Park" [via Best of the Web]

One Can't Deter the Undeterrable

I don't buy that Iran has thousands of centrifuges ready to pump out enriched uranium. The chance of them having those is as good as the effectiveness of their "super weapons" like the stealth flying boat and underwater missile.

Still, Iran's president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is an apocalyptic nutcase who said Israel is "headed toward annihilation." "The Zionist regime is a rotten, dried tree that will be eliminated by one storm."

I'd have no problem with Iran having nukes if I thought she was deterrable. India and Pakistan both possess nuclear weapons, but their leaders realize Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) wouldn't be in the best interests of their nations. With Ahmadinejad he might think he is the person to bring about the end times with the return of the Twelfth Imam. Nuking Israel may be Ahmadinejad's manner of doing it. One can't deter someone from not using a nuclear weapon if he believes he will be better of by using it. A Cold War-style MAD strategy won't work.

Practically speaking a full-scale invasion of Iran is out of the question. There isn't enough manpower with operations going on in Iraq and Afghanistan. Also, there isn't the political will anywhere, not in pacifist Europe nor in the U.S. (It will take Iran using a nuclear weapon on Israel or someone else before Europeans or U.S. anti-warriors take the threat seriously.) Economic sanctions will be Iran's punishment along with the specter of U.S. airstrikes that could include the haunting possiblity of the third-ever use of nuclear weapons in conflict.

"Iran President Again Lashes Out at Israel"

"We Have the Youth We Deserve"

A new law in France would *gasp* let employers fire new hires under 26 for any reason during their first two years of employment. The fact French companies can't do that already explains France's lousy employment situation. For centuries it's been in the French cultural DNA to protest so for weeks that's what students have done. They've gone so far as to cause $1.2 million in damage to the Sorbonne University and have kept it closed for weeks. That school's president Jean-Robert Pitte is fed up with the protesters and their "illusions." His remarks offer the most impressive bit of sanity I've heard from any French man in some time:

"I'm very angry about the demagogy, the ignorance and the stupidity of the young and of the French," said Dr Pitte, 56, a geography professor who has taught at Oxford and Cambridge and holds the Légion d'honneur.

"Today's youth don't have dreams, they have illusions. To dream is to want to accomplish something difficult that is a challenge. Instead youngsters believe they have a right to everything and if things don't go the way they want it's someone else's fault."

...

Dr Pitte, whose comments were published in the respected weekly news magazine Le Point, blamed "irresponsible" public debate for stoking the violence.

"They say: Oh, these poor students! Of course they have a right to an open-ended work contract! It's absurd," he told Le Point. "Who is going to tell these youngsters the truth? Get real." He added that tens of thousands of students were taking degrees in subjects with no relevance to the employment market but were then demanding jobs linked to their studies.

"It's true that someone in England who leaves Oxford with a degree in Chinese can work in marketing, but they learn their job as they go along and must prove themselves.

"I know people will say I'm a horrible reactionary but I'm very angry about the ignorance and the stupidity not just of youngsters but of the French because we have the youth we deserve."

"Head of Sorbonne Attacks 'Ignorant' Student Protesters"

UPDATE: McQ at QandO comments:

While Pitte's words are true and a welcome bit of fresh air, my guess is the result will be Pitte doing the equivalent of the "Larry Summers Shuffle" as he's asked to find another position in the near future. I don't think France is quite yet in the postition to want to deal with the truth.

"France: Speaking Truth to Ignorance"

Christians Besides Rahman Arrested

A news outfit called Compass Direct, a "US-based Christian news source" reports two more Afghan Christians have been arrested. I've never heard of Compass Direct, but I wouldn't be surprised if this is legit. It's something to keep an eye on.

"More Christians Arrested in Afghanistan"

Rahman Flees to Italy

Abdul Rahman was granted asylum in Italy and arrived there. Many Afghan Muslim are miffed he was allowed to leave the country instead of converting back to Islam or be killed for apostasy. Clerics called it a "betrayal to Islam" and the Afghan parliment wanted the Karzai government to stop Rahman from leaving.

With this courageous action Italy should prepare for the backlash. I won't be surprised if fatwahs are issued for Rahman's death. Also expect violent protests outside Italian consulates similar to the ones in response to the Muhammad cartoons.

"Italy Welcomes Man Who Fled Afghanistan"

"Afghan Convert 'Arrives in Italy'"

Rahman Safe for Now

Abdul Rahman will not face charges for converting to Christianity, but he is still not safe. He could be charged later when prosecutors get more evidence, or more likely, someone angry at Rahman's apostasy will kill him.

I am disappointed with the Bush administration's tepid reactions to Rahman's plight. Condi Rice saying we need "to be respectful of Afghan sovereignty" continued that tip-toeing.

Afghan president Hamid Karzai found a way not to alienate the West. This is better than the Taliban who would have killed Rahman days ago. The problem we have is there isn't a model of an Islamic state that practices religious freedom. Turkey is the closest, but they do that by trying hard to keep religion out of state affairs. Even today, the strong military watches the civilian government to make sure they don't go astray from Ataturk's idea of a land of the Turks rather than an Islamic state. (Note that Turkey doesn't call itself the Islamic Republic of Turkey.)

Changing culture and religious attitudes is a slow and painful process. What can't be done is for allied forces to threaten to leave Afghanistan if it doesn't respect religious freedom. Most Afghans would sooner see foreign troops leave and deal with warlords and Islamist terrorists than have the West dictate to them how they should practice Islam. Also, we don't want Afghanistan to again become a homebase for Islamist terrorist. A possibility for more tolerance is for moderate Muslim Afghans who currently live in the West to return to their homeland. These moderates know from experience that Muslims can live side-by-side with Christians, Jews, atheists, etc.

Another possibility is for Muslims to stop looking on the dynastic pride they have in Muslim history and deeply examining the eras when Christians, Jews, and Muslims all lived peacefully together under Muslim rule. Instead of moaning the demise of dar al-Islam to dar al-Harb historic lessons can be found to adjust Islam to the modern world.

Afghanistan will have to change because there are more Christians converts there than just Abdul Rahman:

The middle-aged man, who cannot be named for fear of reprisals, embraced Christianity 20 years ago. Unlike Rahman, who converted while working for a charity in Pakistan, where there is a Christian minority numbering several million, he has never left Afghanistan.

"We have churches here in Kabul and all the cities of the country, and links to Christians abroad," he said. "There have always been Christians in this country. Some families have been Christian for generations, but most have been converted in recent years."

The Christian interviewed said Afghan Christians "don't get trouble from ordinary people, but being afraid of being identified shows the pull of "extremist religious groups" who "will try to kill or kidnap us, to mount grenade attacks."

"Afghan Court Drops Case Against Christian"

"Abdul Rahman to Be Released"

Iraqi Civil War

What are the costs or benefits, if there are any, of an Iraqi civil war?

Aaron poses the question.

I answer it.

Your thoughts?

Robertson Calls Islamists "Satanic"

In anyone thinks I'll bash Pat Robertson for calling radical Islamists "Satanic" will be disappointed. There will be no anti-Coulter bashing tonight. I have no problem calling those that killed thousands by slamming airplanes into buildings or bomb innocents in public places or demand the death of America "evil." As a Christian I believe one source of evil is a supernatural being named Satan. Thus, it's not a stretch to call such evil "Satanic."

I'm in good company. Ace is an agnostic and has no problem with Robertson this time.

"Robertson Finds Radical Muslims 'Satanic'"

Gotta Love Those Muslims

Islam's history, like any other culture's, is filled with both good and bad. While Islam today is dealing with the stain of suicide terrorism Catholicism has the Inquisition as a historic scar.

Since I'm on vacation I'm really, really happy Jabir ibn Hayyan invented distillation. I wouldn't be enjoying my margaritas without that piece of technology.

"How Islamic Inventors Changed the World"

Reap What You Sow

When the ports deal dead we shouldn't be surprised the UAE wants to slow progress on free-trade talks.

"US-UAE Trade Talks on Hold"

No Surprise

There was a protest and Glenn Reynolds finds a picture of a lovely woman. Par for the course.

No Control?

This could have serious ramifications. (H/T Drudge)

The decision by the United Arab Emirates on Thursday to order state-controlled Dubai Ports World to end its control over US port facilities marks the lowest point yet in the relationship between President George W. Bush and the Republican-controlled Congress.

Mr Bush had warned repeatedly that blocking the deal would send a dangerously discriminatory message to the world. He threatened repeatedly to veto any congressional legislation.

But with his public approval ratings at record lows and his Republican party abandoning him, one of the US’s closest allies in the Arab world concluded that he was no longer in control in Washington.

The decision by Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al- Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, is likely to avert the political backlash that hit Washington last month and may prevent any further damage to diplomatic and security relations between the countries. But it underscored that Mr Bush, who still has nearly three years to go in his second term, has become perilously weak.

I'm not saying that this deal shouldn't have been questioned, because it should have been, but with news like this out every day, and Iran becoming more extreme in its refusal to comply and demands, the President must have strong control, or at least the appearance of control.

The DPW Deal

DPW now says it will transfer port operations to a U.S. Company. Curiouser and curiouser.

Pick Your Poison

I'll take -20 weather over massive mudslides anytime. My prayers are with the Philippino victims.

"Philippine Rescue Crews Hope for Miracle"

Imagine Chavez with the Bomb

Iran and Venezuela signed a document that read in part:

We condemn the making, development and accumulation of nuclear arms, (and) we ratify the right of all countries to make peaceful use of nuclear energy.

Of course we should believe them because they have such stable leaders running their free nations.

The only thing worse than Iranian president Ahmadinejad having a nuke is Hugo Chavez with one.

"Iran Open to Helping Venezuela Nuclear Program"

Islam's PR Problem

Jim Geraghty has a downer post on Muslims opposing the cartoon violence.